Monday, August 07, 2006

The "Israeli-Arab" Uprising Could Come Sooner Than You Think...


Now this is just my own little theory, but it makes a lot of sense to me. You can choose to take it or leave it.

First, have a look at this mildly interesting article from Ha'aretz:


"Arab citizens directing anger at Israel as frustration mounts with each new death"


Now think for a moment. Everyone knows that the distinction between "Israeli Arab" and "Palestinian Arab" is about as farcical as the very concept of a "Palestinian nation" in itself. Most (if not all) Israeli Arabs refer to themselves as "Palestinians," and those who do not, generally only do not because they are doing well financially, and so why bother kicking up such a fuss when things are so cushy and you can fund the "resistance" quietly, while at the same time make some money? The fact is, they are happy when there are suicide bombings, they are happy when there are expulsions, and they are happy at this latest war with Lebanon. They call their dead "shahids," in identification with the cause of their brethren in Yesha and the Arab countries.

Why is it then, that they have remained so (comparatively) quiet? Ok, there have been several cells of "Israeli-Arabs" who were carrying out or preparing/planning to carry out attacks on behalf of Hamas or Hizbullah, and there have been plenty of Beduin army officers who have sold guns and information to Hizbullah and Syria. And ok, we know of the fact that they commit more crimes than any other population sector (especially violent crimes and sexual-assaults/rapes, etc). But where have they been in terms of the general populace? They seem to get pretty worked up at these funerals...

There are probably a few answers. First of all, the Israeli govt is buying them off - with some limited success. Tax collectors never dare venture into Arab towns and villages; illegal Arab buildings are generally allowed to stand in their thousands; Arabs are exempt from national service and so have a head-start economically (and in terms of starting families and having babies) to Israeli Jews; Arabs still get all the welfare that any other citizen gets despite all of that... the list goes on and on. But still, doesn't it seem wierd to you that with all their connections - in fact, they are part of the same body - to the Arabs of Yesha: Hamas, Fatah, PFLP, Islamic Jihad, etc - and as well as their Lebanese/Syrian/Iranian connections, that they haven't perpetrated any mass attacks?

Obviously, in light of all these facts, the only reason that they are not doing such things is because the time is not yet ripe. For the time being, they stay put, thinking time is on their side, waiting... Eventually, however, they will rise up - and that time might be sooner than you think...

Israel built a "Security Barrier" for Yehuda veShomron. In some parts it is ridiculous. Ok, maybe an elephant couldn't climb through the large gaps in the wall - but any motivated terrorist could. However, there is no doubt that that - coupled with the security services' ever-increasing experience and abilities to deal with the terrorist threat from that front - all of this has "cooled down" the situation there somewhat, right?... Right?!

Wrong - and laughably so. A man with a suicide jacket/belt can be stopped once, twice, three times... maybe twenty times if you're lucky - but they can get through all the time if they really want to. Yes no doubt the security services have made it (for arguements sake) 1:50 instead of 1:20, but there is certainly not a shortage of Arabs, and besides: those are just statistics - in reality things can go completely against the statistics because scenarios are all different.

The reason that that front is less volatile is because of the change in tactics from the Arab side. The suicide bomb phase did what it was meant to do - it forced Israel out of the Gaza "badlands," and forced them to accept the idea of a "2 state solution," which means that "Palestine" is now in sight in some shape or form. Of course, they knew that suicide bombers alone wouldn't destroy Israel. They won in Gaza, and are using it to slowly but surely wear down the residents of Sderot, Ashkelon, and other in the south through the firing of Kassams and other home-made rockets. Every so often they give the IDF a slap in the face by killing and injuring - and even taking captive - soldiers. That's not to say that they aren't still active and deadly in Judea and Samaria - they quite evidently are - but that is now taking a back seat for the time being.

Right now it's Hizbullah. They are killing soldiers, civilians and the economy. But of course, this will gain THEM very little. Lebanon is in ruins (once again), and the only victory they will get is a boost in moral, a PR victory, and perhaps some prisoners. However, the costs do outweight the benefits... but only if you look at Hizbullah by itself!

The fact is that we all know that they are a part of something much much bigger. Has anyone ever wondered about "the day after?" What will be after this war in the north ends? Just more Kassams and IDF operations in Gaza? You really think so? That's it, the militant "palestinian cause" stops there and "negotiations" become the new future? Of course not. There might be a return to some form of "negotiations" for a bit - just to keep up the chirade - but really they will (thank G-D) come to nothing because Abbas is irrelevant and Hamas won't negotiate (again, thank G-D).

I can only speculate, but I would think that precisely THEN would be the perfect time for the "Israeli-Arabs" to start something up.

In Gaza they are walled in - the damage they can do is limited. In Judea and Samaria the objective is almost complete (although they haven't yet started firing rockets from there... yet). The Israeli-Arab populace hate Israel/"the Zionist State" and the Jews in general as much as any other Arab. Certain villages and towns up north (Um El Fahem, Shfaram, etc) are cess-pits and a haven for terrorists. Eventually it will come - although possibly they will wait for some more "concessions" in the way of land by Olmerde and co.

Don't forget about the "Israeli-Arabs," and don't forget that they are a hostile population center that can hit almost anywhere in Israel even easier than the "Palestinian" non Israel-citizens ever could. Hizbullah are softening things up for them and "making them angrier" - give them a few "shahids" as a head start and start stoking the flames anyway... the next stage is to put the Hizbullah/PIJ (both Iranian-controlled)/Hamas/etc, etc, etc terror cells into action. Because once the time is ripe, the population is ready to facilitate a sustained terror campaign - instead of one-off terror plots carried out by a few dozen individuals, that are finished once all 10/12/15 of them (the terror gang) are caught or killed.

It's a very clever change of tactics, because the current tactics have been used to their full capacity. Why ONLY try getting suicide bombers in from Ramallah, Jenin, Kalkilyeh, Shechem, etc, when you can be much more sure of success by sending them from Um El Fahem, or even Jaffa!?

It is their "killer blow," and they will probably wait until after this war - and possibly after Olmerde gives away more land - but not definitely then (because as we know, Arabs generally wreck things for themselves habitually, and it wouldn't really figure in to their equation that waiting a little while longer could probably allow them to milk Israel for all it's worth before sending their people to die.)

The terror wave is coming, and my suspicion is that once it does, things will reach breaking point. The fact is, that such a campaign would shatter the last of the remaining illusions that the left still hold on to - that of the "intergrated Arab, living side-by-side with his Jewish neighbours." Once that illusion is shattered, the people will be forced to go the only other way left for them to go - sooner or later.

But why wait for it to get to that? Maybe the time is ripe to hit them first? Maybe it's time to fight for and take Har Habayit and take the wind out of their sails before anything like that takes place? Maybe, maybe, maybe... Only time will tell. But until then, we can only watch and weep as more and more Jews die.

What is interesting is that in any such "uprising," Yerushalayim (which has sort of fallen out of the spotlight with all this fighting in the north) would most certainly be at the center of all of it - being as it is a "mixed Jewish-Arab city..."

No comments: